Covert Israel-Syria talks exposed

Failed covert Israeli-Syrian talks do serious damage to the peace process, which is now unlikely to move forward before 2008 US presidential elections.


BBC
Commentary by Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (18/01/07)


The revelation this week that Israeli and Syrian representatives had apparently reached agreement on a draft peace deal in secret talks, rather than presaging an open diplomatic process, is a major blow to hopes for a return to final status negotiations.

Both governments were swift to renounce any involvement in the formulation of the "non-paper," published in Israel's Ha'aretz daily on Tuesday. The document appears to establish the basis for a final agreement between the two states over the Golan Heights.

According to the newspaper, the draft peace accord was formulated in a series of secret meetings in Europe between September 2004 and July 2006 involving a former director of Israel's Foreign Ministry, Alon Liel, and Syrian-American businessman Ibrahim Suleiman, in the presence of a European mediator.

Liel said the talks foundered when the Syrians demanded they be upgraded to official status and include a senior US official.

The negotiations appear to have been carried out at arm's length by both sides, using officials with no direct ties to the respective leaderships in a bid to ensure deniability in the event of failure.

Interestingly, the unsigned document looks to follow past proposals in advocating a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Golan Heights (Israel reportedly sought a 15-year pullback, Syria five); the establishment of a nature reserve buffer zone along the Golan Heights plateau and eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, with the waters of the lake and Jordan River to remain under complete Israeli control.

Syria's official SANA news agency quoted an unnamed Foreign Ministry official as calling the Ha'aretz report "categorically unfounded and baseless."

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told reporters: "I knew of nothing. No one in the government was involved in this matter."

During a visit to Russia last month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad rubbished suggestions in the Israeli press that his administration had, through intermediaries, made an offer to Israel in an effort to restart negotiations, saying: "There is no such proposal - nothing."

The Syrian leader has repeatedly expressed his desire for full, open peace negotiations over the Golan Heights, identifying the return of the territory as a key government goal, while mixing these calls with ambiguous threats of future military action.

On 25 December, Olmert said talks with Syria would only resume when the al-Assad government decided to "stop supporting Hamas, to stop supporting Hizbollah, to sever its terrible links to Iran."

Syria promised in the draft accord to cut its ties with Hamas and Hizbollah and to distance itself from Iran. Syrian government officials have reportedly told foreign interlocutors seeking the return of kidnapped Israeli servicemen that their influence was greater over Hamas - which has its political bureau in Damascus - than Hizbollah.

US President George W Bush appears implacable in his opposition to the resumption of US-Syrian ties, alleging in his address on Iraq policy last week that the al-Assad government was supporting Iraqi insurgents.

Bush's refusal to countenance the mending of ties with Syria flies in the face of the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group and has been cited by Olmert as one reason for his government's current opposition to peace talks.

Israeli intelligence services have mirrored confusion among the country's politicians regarding al-Assad's intentions, with the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee hearing three contradictory intelligence assessments of Syrian intentions in late December.

A weekend poll in the Hebrew daily Yediot Ahranoth showed that 67 percent of Israelis want Olmert to respond favorably to the Syrian peace overtures. Confusingly, 66 percent believe that giving up the strategically important Golan Heights is too high a price to pay for peace.

The combination of US and domestic pressure and a seemingly deep personal mistrust of Syrian motivations have made it easier for Olmert to focus his administration's attention on the Palestinian-Israeli peace track. Here, the price of peace is yet to be decided and will only be paid if the opposition Fatah party is able to re-take control of the Palestinian Authority.

Olmert faced renewed calls on Wednesday from both the political left and right for his immediate resignation after Chief of Staff Dan Halutz quit over the failures of the Israeli-Hizbollah war. Down in the polls, Olmert appears unwilling to risk fresh elections through domestically divisive talks with Syria.

The apparent failure of covert Syrian-Israeli negotiations to foster a breakthrough is a profound blow to regional peace making efforts that dissuades both sides from entering open talks. This is true despite the relatively comprehensive nature of the agreement reached.

While allowing the free-play of ideas vital to successful negotiations, backdoor talks lack the legitimacy of an open diplomatic process and are politically damaging to the progenitors when they fail.

Without a dramatic turnaround in US policy a breakthrough on the Israeli-Syrian peace track now looks unlikely ahead of the November 2008 US presidential elections.




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Dr Dominic Moran is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).

Reprinted with permission of the International Relations and Security Network.