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Iran Moderating Its Nuclear Ambition?
After months of blocking moves by Russia and China, the U.N. finally issued a relatively weak resolution to impose sanctions on Iran because of it's accelerating nuclear program. A Jan 13, 2007 Reuters news wire indicates that "...the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] is reassessing dozens of technical aid projects in Iran to see if any violate a December 23 U.N. Security Council resolution imposing penalties on Tehran over fears it is secretly trying to build atom bombs." The IAEA is an international organization that provides assistance to nations for the development of civilian nuclear capabilities.
In November 2007, the 35 nation members of the IAEA disapproved Iran's bid for a heavy water reactor, but left seven other items intact. An IAEA review is expected in February. While Iran has vowed never to comply the U.N. Security Council's demand to shelve nuclear fuel-enrichment research, their response to the U.S. resolution is considered moderate by many analysts. Had the U.N. resolution been stronger, a more radical Iranian response could have resulted. Meanwhile, Islamic extremist hardliners are reportedly losing ground to more moderate influences inside Iran. It is possible that the moderate Iranian reaction to the U.N. sanctions was also a result of this recent change in the Iranian political landscape.
Accordingly, it appears that there is a little breathing room to observe Iran's behavior and develop policy options. However, even if Iran moderates, there is a growing unease over relationships between Iran, North Korea and now, Venezuela. These three countries are surely not operating in a vacuum, and the prospect of the evolution of cooperation and alliances amongst these nations, with possible ties to Russia and China should add additional weight to the need for a review of priorities regarding international relations and security in the region.
The U.S. President's policy and efforts to establish democracies in the region is desirable from the perspective of international relations and security, because the region has geopolitical proximity to Russia and China, two sleeping giants that appear to be awakening. If President Bush is unable to achieve at least a modicum of success in Iraq before his term expires, the failed bid to expand western influence in the Middle East may well result in a new and even less desirable global equation for international relations and security as rogue nations increasingly fall under Russian and/or Chinese influence.
In November 2007, the 35 nation members of the IAEA disapproved Iran's bid for a heavy water reactor, but left seven other items intact. An IAEA review is expected in February. While Iran has vowed never to comply the U.N. Security Council's demand to shelve nuclear fuel-enrichment research, their response to the U.S. resolution is considered moderate by many analysts. Had the U.N. resolution been stronger, a more radical Iranian response could have resulted. Meanwhile, Islamic extremist hardliners are reportedly losing ground to more moderate influences inside Iran. It is possible that the moderate Iranian reaction to the U.N. sanctions was also a result of this recent change in the Iranian political landscape.
Accordingly, it appears that there is a little breathing room to observe Iran's behavior and develop policy options. However, even if Iran moderates, there is a growing unease over relationships between Iran, North Korea and now, Venezuela. These three countries are surely not operating in a vacuum, and the prospect of the evolution of cooperation and alliances amongst these nations, with possible ties to Russia and China should add additional weight to the need for a review of priorities regarding international relations and security in the region.
The U.S. President's policy and efforts to establish democracies in the region is desirable from the perspective of international relations and security, because the region has geopolitical proximity to Russia and China, two sleeping giants that appear to be awakening. If President Bush is unable to achieve at least a modicum of success in Iraq before his term expires, the failed bid to expand western influence in the Middle East may well result in a new and even less desirable global equation for international relations and security as rogue nations increasingly fall under Russian and/or Chinese influence.
posted by hispeed | Saturday, January 13, 2007
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